Greece BBB: Surplus and Stability Impress S&P

Greece has maintained its investment-grade BBB rating with a stable outlook from Standard & Poor’s, following its upgrade in April 2025. The country stands out due to high primary surpluses and the reduction of public debt in absolute terms for the second consecutive year.

Key highlights from S&P:

• Average primary surplus of 3.4% of GDP since 2023
• Overall fiscal surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2025
• Fiscal discipline maintained despite potential spending relaxation
• Strong revenue growth from tax compliance and improved labor market
• Tourism up +12.5% through July 2025 vs. 2024

Economic resilience & growth

• Real GDP growth +2.1% this year
• Private consumption supported by rising real wages
• Gradual decline in unemployment
• Investments boosted by RRF projects & NextGenerationEU funds

External challenges:

• High current account deficit, but declining due to tourism and lower interest payments
• Net exports contributed positively to GDP in H1 2025
• Gradual improvement in the current account expected over the coming years

Medium-term outlook:

• Average growth 2.2% for 2025-2026
• Gradual slowdown after RRF ends, considered normal
• Strategic investments via EU long-term budget 2028-2034

S&P concludes that Greece exhibits strong fiscal and economic resilience, with stable prospects combining:

• Fiscal discipline
• Ongoing investments
• Economic resilience against external shocks